In Week 11, we see a familiar face showing up again as a value pick in pick ’em pools, as the public seems to undervalue the Colts on an almost-weekly basis. Meanwhile, the Jets are back on the schedule after a bye week, and the public is going heavily on the Chargers as a Week 11 survivor pool pick even though there are other viable picks to consider.
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Week 11 NFL Picks Advice: Tips for Pick ’em Pools
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Indianapolis (vs. Green Bay)
There may not be another team this season for which the public has been in such frequent disagreement with the oddsmakers as the Colts. The Colts are actually a one-point favorite in this game, but the public is taking them just 28 percent of the time. We’ve seen Indianapolis appear as a value play in at least half of the weeks played so far, most recently last week, when less than 20 percent of the public was picking the Colts against the Titans even though Indy was the slight favorite in the betting markets.
That value play last week got our picks off to a hot start, and we rolled the public in Week 10 by going 4-0 in games where the public picked a favorite less frequently than the win odds suggested they should.
Green Bay has certainly been a really good team in 2020, but the public is still sleeping on the Colts, especially how good their defense has been when all of the key players are healthy.
Indianapolis ranks No. 1 in fewest yards allowed per game and ranks in the top five in pretty much every defensive category. They also rank fifth overall in net yards per pass on offense, and despite Philip Rivers being viewed as a turnover machine, Indy ranks near the the bottom of the league in turnovers, as well.
This is a matchup between two top contenders, and Indianapolis is at home. More important, getting a favorite at a popularity discount is one of the best situations you can hope for in a pick ’em pool.
Baltimore (vs. Tennessee)
The Ravens are coming off an upset loss to the Patriots, and they are playing the team that knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago in stunning fashion. So, it’s no surprise that over 20 percent of the public is thinking upset in this game even though the Ravens are a six-point favorite in the betting markets.
Compared to other teams with similar win odds, though, Baltimore is being undervalued here. The Ravens are the fifth-largest favorite of the week but ninth in pick popularity. In fact, several teams favored by fewer than four points are currently being picked more often by the public than Baltimore is.
That makes Baltimore a set-it-and-forget-it pick in game-winner formats. Lock in a reasonably large favorite, and focus any potential upset picking on teams with a much better risk/reward profile this week than Tennessee.
Houston (vs. New England)
This game features the proverbial moveable object versus the resistible force. The Texans’ defense has been a major problem this year, but Houston also faces a New England team that has been inconsistent on offense and has thrown an NFL-worst five touchdown passes.
To begin with, it’s probably wise not to read too much into last week’s results from these teams on account of the extreme weather conditions each faced. Houston vs. Cleveland was a mess because of the wind and New England upset Baltimore in a driving, cold rain.
The oddsmakers have New England as the slightest of favorites here (-1), while our models are more optimistic about Houston’s chances. That difference is moot, though, considering Houston’s much lower pick popularity of only around 35 percent.
Even going by betting market odds, for a very small amount of incremental risk, Houston offers a chance to differentiate your entry from over 65 percent of your opponents.
To see the picks for the rest of the Week 11 slate that maximize your odds to win your NFL pick ’em pool, check out the Football Pick ’em Picks product. It’s the only product available that customizes picks based on the dynamics of your specific pools.
Week 11 NFL Survivor Pool Advice
The Los Angeles Chargers are the most popular survivor choice this week, with over 40 percent of the public taking them against the winless Jets. However, the 2-7 Chargers aren’t all that safe of a play for a team so popular, with win odds of around 76 percent. Of the seven other teams this year that have had 30-percent popularity or more, all but one had win odds of 81 percent or better.
The Chargers are the most frequent choice this week because they have little future value and because they are still available to most survivor pool entries. You might have a higher value option available to you, though, given how strongly the public is on the Chargers this week.
For example, we recommended our subscribers largely refrain from using the Pittsburgh Steelers two weeks ago in Dallas because the Steelers would have great future value in coming weeks, when fewer entries could use them.
That includes this week, where Pittsburgh is a larger favorite than the Chargers (-10 for Pittsburgh versus -8.5 for the Chargers) but is being used far less. Pittsburgh has the highest “expected value” of the week, if you still have them available to select. The Minnesota Vikings are the other semi-popular choice (29 percent) this week when they play Dallas.
Of course, the best Week 11 pick for your survivor pool this week depends on a lot of things, like how many entries are still alive, whether you face double picks in later weeks (or other non-standard rules), and what teams you’ve used so far. To see the top pick for your current situation, check out our NFL Survivor Picks product for customized advice.