When the Patriots got stuffed at the goal line down 35-30 with time expiring against the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, not only did they lose the game, but they prevented me from going 3-0 in last week’s spread, moneyline, and over/under picks. Anyhow, let’s move on and break down what has the potential to be a very profitable betting week based on the catastrophic number of injuries that swept over the league like wildfire on Sunday.
Every week, I will break down my favorite bets while weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL, a web and app platform that simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day, and meaningful team trends. Let’s take a look at three Week 3 bets you should consider making.
All data presented is as of Tuesday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.
NFL Week 3 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
Chargers (-6.5) vs. Panthers
Carolina dropped the first two games of the new campaign with Christian McCaffrey (ankle) on the field. Now with him on the IR, it will have to essentially transform its entire offensive philosophy with Mike Davis and Trenton Cannon at RB against one of the best defenses in the entire NFL. Add in the fact that the left side of the Panthers offensive line is banged up (left tackle Russell Okung and left guard Dennis Daley are both questionable), and this could be a very long day for Teddy Bridgewater and company.
Justin Herbert will be making his second straight start for the Chargers, and if last week was any indication, LA’s future looks very bright. With literally no advanced warning, he was thrust into the starting role after Tyrod Taylor suffered a freak lung issue at the hands of his team doctor before kickoff. Herbert went 22-for-33 for 311 yards, one touchdown and one interception and led his team to overtime against the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs. He should have a much easier matchup against a Panthers defense that hasn’t recorded a single sack through two games. Running backs Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley should be in store for a huge day on the ground against Carolina’s awful run defense, and if I would predict any Week 3 blowout win, it would be this one.
So far, 65 percent of total money wagered is backing the Chargers to cover (per BetQL’s NFL Consensus Picks dashboard).
NFL Week 3 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
49ers (-190) at Giants
Our model is listing San Francisco as a five-star moneyline value this week. As -190 consensus favorites, we have them at -309 while taking into account the key injuries sustained by both teams.
First things first, with Saquon Barkley (knee) on the IR, the Giants will be relying on a mix of newly signed Devonta Freeman, pass-catching specialist Dion Lewis, and Wayne Gallman in the backfield. In other words, there’s a lot of uncertainty at the running back position for an offense that sputtered to 16 points against the Steelers in Week 1 and 13 against the Bears last week. It’s tough to expect much from this offense without its most dynamic weapon this week.
The Niners will be without a number of key offensive players, as well, most notably running backs Raheem Mostert (knee) and Tevin Coleman (knee), quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle), and possibly tight end George Kittle (knee). However, Nick Mullens is a more-than-capable backup QB, and Jerrick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson should be able to operate Kyle Shanahan’s deadly zone-run offense, especially since the G-Men have allowed an average of 138 rushing yards per game so far. Even with their injuries, this San Francisco team has the advantage on both sides of the ball and should be expected to win.
NFL Week 3 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
Bears at Falcons: OVER 47
Remember when we picked on the Dolphins defense at the beginning of last season? That’s what we are going to do with this year’s Falcons squad. Allowing 953 yards of total offense (6.9 yards per play) and an NFL-worst 78 points in their first two games, this team is flat-out horrendous on the defensive side of the ball. We should continue to exploit this situation before oddsmakers fully catch on (a 63-point total in Week 1 and then a 79-point total in Week 2 aren’t going to end up being anomalies).
Not only is the Falcons defense a turnstile, but the Falcons also pass at a very high rate when they have the football. They had the league’s highest pass play percentage last season and have the fifth highest through two games (63.1 percent). Through two games, the Falcons have run an average of 74.5 plays and their opponents have run an average of 69.5. Get ready for a big week from Mitchell Trubisky and company and bet the over.
You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!